The Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to 12, marking extreme fear. On Polymarket, the question of whether Ethereum will reach $2,400 by April 11 sits at 100% YES, up from 18% a day ago.

## Market reaction

The Ethereum $2,400 by April 11 market locked at 100% YES after a 38-point jump at 6:36 PM, moving from 40% to 77% in a single trade before climbing the rest of the way. Bitcoin is trading between $66,500 and $68,000, down significantly from its January peak. The April 12 Ethereum price market remains at 0% YES across all price brackets.

## Why it matters

Face value for the Ethereum April 11 market is $35,808/day, with actual USDC traded at $32,037/day. The 38-point single-trade spike was the largest move in this market, suggesting a concentrated bet rather than gradual accumulation. The current fear reading of 12 has persisted for over 46 days, a stretch comparable to the sentiment during the Terra/Luna collapse in 2022. Traders are nonetheless betting on Ethereum breaking above $2,400, pointing to potential institutional inflows and regulatory developments as catalysts.

## What to watch

At 100% YES, a YES share pays $1 if Ethereum reaches $2,400 by April 11. For this position to pay off, the price move needs to happen within the contract window. Key variables: exchange activity on Binance and Coinbase, and any SEC regulatory announcements that could shift Ethereum’s price path. The 46-day streak of extreme fear means any positive catalyst could produce an outsized reaction.

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