The Strait of Hormuz has been functionally blocked for months. Now, America’s closest allies want to do something about it, but only if President Trump says yes.

At the G7 summit in Evian, France, scheduled for June 15-17, the UK and France plan to present a Europe-led mine-clearing operation for Trump’s endorsement. The proposal would enable rapid deployment of allied naval assets to reopen the strait, contingent on a peace agreement between the US and Iran. Roughly 20% of global oil supply passes through that narrow waterway.

From US demands to European initiative

The Trump administration pushed hard for allied naval support back in March 2026, shortly after Iran’s mining campaign effectively choked off the strait starting in late February. Germany, Italy, Spain, Australia, and Japan all balked, framing the blockade as a conflict they didn’t start and didn’t want to join.

The current proposal represents a meaningful shift in strategy. Rather than Washington demanding allies fall in line, European powers are now taking the lead. The UK and France have assembled what’s described as an operationally ready demining plan, essentially flipping the script from American-led pressure to a collaborative framework.

Turkey has signaled a willingness to contribute to the demining effort if formally asked.

Why the strait matters beyond oil prices

Iran’s mining campaign, which began in late February 2026 amid escalating confrontations involving the US and Israel, has kept the strait largely impassable for several months.

That asymmetry is precisely why the demining plan needs to be ready before any peace deal is signed. If negotiators reach an agreement and the strait remains mined for months afterward, the economic damage continues accumulating regardless of the diplomatic breakthrough.

What this means for markets and geopolitics

The plan’s success depends on several variables. First, whether Trump actually endorses the proposal or demands modifications that could delay implementation. Second, whether the peace talks between Washington and Tehran produce an agreement that triggers deployment. Third, whether countries that previously refused to participate, particularly Germany and Japan, change their positions under the new framework.

A credible, pre-positioned demining capability could compress the timeline between a diplomatic breakthrough and actual physical reopening of the waterway from months to weeks.

For energy-exposed assets, including oil futures, shipping stocks, and currencies of oil-importing nations, the G7 outcome will be a leading indicator of how quickly normal flows might resume. A unified endorsement would signal that the infrastructure for reopening exists and awaits only a political trigger. A fractured response, or outright rejection from Trump, would suggest the strait stays blocked well beyond any potential peace deal.