European coalition offers military aid for Strait of Hormuz as Iran opens waterway

A European-led coalition has offered military assistance to secure the Strait of Hormuz, coinciding with Iran’s announcement that it would open the waterway. President Trump cautioned NATO members to keep their distance. The market on Trump agreeing to Iranian demands for sanction relief by April sits at 65.5% YES, up from 28% a week ago.

The odds increase reflects Strait of Hormuz developments, though traders remain skeptical of a deal. The European coalition’s involvement adds a complication that could make Trump less willing to offer concessions. The market has $1,975 in daily actual USDC traded, with a $285 cost to move prices 5 points, a thin market that can shift quickly.

Volume is moderate at $7,900 in actual USDC traded over the past 24 hours. The largest single move, a 2-point drop, occurred after noon. The European coalition’s offer signals a harder stance, consistent with Trump’s NATO warning and working against the likelihood of sanction relief.

For traders, this shifts the odds against a resolution before the end of April. At 65.5¢, buying YES pays $1 if resolved positively, a 2.78x return. That requires belief in significant diplomatic progress within two weeks.

Watch for new statements from Trump on social media or official channels, and any moves by NATO or individual European countries regarding the Strait of Hormuz. These will be the clearest signals of where this market heads next.

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