Experts outline conditions to end US-Iran conflict, no shift in stance

Iranian state media reports that experts from 30 nations have outlined conditions to end the US-Iran conflict. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 market sits at 100% YES.

The report appears to echo Tehran’s existing demands, with no real shift in diplomatic stance. The April 15 market remains at 100% YES, and the April 30 market is also at 100% YES, showing no expected change within the next 20 days.

Combined 24-hour volume across these sub-markets is zero. The term structure is flat across all dates, with no expected catalyst to move odds in either direction.

Iran’s reiterated demands are unlikely to change anything without significant US concessions or a breakthrough in intermediary efforts. At 100% YES, there’s no upside left for buyers unless they expect an unexpected diplomatic turn. The absence of any trading activity confirms traders believe the status quo holds.

Watch for moves from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar. A concrete diplomatic initiative could shift these odds. Until then, expect stasis.

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