The Federal Reserve’s Michael Barr has a message for anyone expecting AI to lift all boats equally: don’t hold your breath.

In a speech titled “Artificial Intelligence and the Economy” delivered on February 17, 2026, the Vice Chair for Supervision argued that while AI stands to meaningfully boost productivity, the gains are likely to cluster among firms and workers who already have access to advanced tools.

The productivity promise, with a catch

He cited aggregate estimates suggesting AI could add between 0.3 and 0.9 percentage points to annual total factor productivity growth over the next decade.

Studies he referenced show that AI assistants can enhance worker efficiency, speed, and accuracy across a range of tasks. But those benefits accrue to people who actually have access to advanced AI systems, which increasingly means well-resourced companies with the budgets to deploy enterprise-grade tools and retrain their workforces accordingly.

Retraining over layoffs, for now

A November 2025 New York Fed survey, which Barr referenced from an earlier speech, found that firms are prioritizing workforce retraining to capture AI productivity gains. Crucially, those same firms reported they are not anticipating significant layoffs as a result of AI adoption.

What this means for crypto and digital asset markets

Barr did not mention crypto, blockchain, or digital assets in his remarks. Not once.

From a macro perspective, if AI does add 0.3 to 0.9 percentage points to annual productivity growth, that changes the Fed’s calculus on neutral interest rates. Higher structural productivity growth means the economy can sustain higher rates without overheating, which generally creates a less favorable environment for risk assets, including crypto.

Conversely, if the uneven distribution problem Barr warned about means those productivity gains materialize slowly and unevenly, the Fed may need to keep policy more accommodative for longer to support broader economic participation.