The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% at its June 17, 2026 meeting, and the overwhelming consensus among economists is that it’s going to stay right there for a while. A Reuters poll conducted between June 23-25 found that over 75% of economists expect no changes to rates for the remainder of the year.

The inflation picture keeps getting worse

Back in March 2026, inflation projections sat at a relatively manageable 2.7%. Fast forward to June, and those numbers have been revised sharply upward, with headline inflation now projected at 3.6% and core inflation at 3.3%.

The median projected federal funds rate for end-2026 was adjusted to 3.8%, which implies at least one 25 basis point hike could still be on the table later this year. The FOMC voted unanimously to hold steady this time, but the Summary of Economic Projections tells a more hawkish story than the headline decision suggests.

Policymakers have pointed to persistent price pressures, uneven economic growth, and labor market dynamics as the reasons for maintaining their restrictive stance.

New chair, same tight ship

This was the first meeting presided over by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and his debut came with a clear signal. The dot plot, which maps out individual FOMC members’ rate expectations, tilted hawkish not just for 2026 but through 2028.

What this means for crypto and risk assets

Bitcoin has been trading in the $60,000 to $62,000 range around mid-June 2026, and the Fed’s stance helps explain why the momentum has stalled. Prolonged higher rates act like a slow drain on the liquidity that fuels speculative asset markets.

The key variable to watch is whether inflation continues to surprise to the upside. If the 3.6% headline figure proves to be a floor rather than a ceiling, the possibility of an actual rate hike, not just a hold, becomes very real.