US Treasuries staged a recovery after Kevin Warsh, in his first meeting as Federal Reserve Chairman, made clear he’s not here to play nice with inflation. The message was blunt: price stability is coming back, whether markets like it or not.

Warsh, who took over the Fed’s top seat on May 22, 2026, succeeding Jerome Powell, used his inaugural FOMC meeting on June 17 to hold the benchmark interest rate steady. But the real signal was in the forward guidance: a potential rate hike by year’s end.

A new sheriff with an old playbook

Inflation in the US has been running between 3.3% and 3.8% for over five years now. That’s roughly double the Fed’s 2% target.

Warsh described the Fed’s commitment to restoring price stability as “strong, unanimous, and unambiguous.”

This isn’t Warsh’s first tour of duty at the Fed. He served as a governor from 2006 to 2011, a period that included navigating the global financial crisis.

Adding an interesting wrinkle to the macro backdrop: a US-Iran agreement reached in mid-June has helped ease some inflationary pressure on energy prices.

What this means for crypto

Warsh didn’t mention crypto once during the FOMC meeting. Warsh’s personal financial disclosures revealed he holds investments in digital asset projects including Solana and Ethereum. He has pledged to divest those holdings.

When the Fed hiked aggressively in 2022 and 2023, crypto markets shed trillions in value. When rate cuts seemed imminent, risk appetite returned.

What investors should watch

Markets are currently pricing in the possibility of a rate hike before 2026 ends. If inflation data over the coming months stays sticky in that 3.3% to 3.8% range, the Fed will have little choice but to tighten further.

The Treasury market’s initial recovery after Warsh’s comments is telling. Bond traders appear to believe the new chair means business.