Fourteen oil tankers transit Strait of Hormuz amid easing blockade signs

Fourteen oil tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz today. The odds of traffic normalization by April 30 sit at 71.5% YES, down from 60% yesterday.

Market reaction

The April 30 sub-market dropped 10 points in the past 24 hours despite today’s transit. The May 31 market holds steady at 92% YES, meaning traders expect a resolution by end of May even if April looks less certain.

Liquidity in the April market is thin: only $354 is needed to shift the price by 5 points. The largest move in the past 24 hours was a 4-point drop, which shows how easily small trades can swing this contract.

Why it matters

The tanker passage suggests a tentative easing of the blockade, but traders are discounting the signal because the source of this report is less authoritative. Buying YES at 71.5¢ offers a potential 1.98x return if normalization happens by April 30.

What to watch

Official statements from Iran’s Foreign Ministry or the US Department of Defense. A shift in rhetoric or concrete actions from either side would move these contracts fast, especially given the thin liquidity.

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