France and the UK will host a video conference on Friday to plan a defensive mission to secure the Strait of Hormuz. The likelihood of the UK sending warships through the Strait by April 30 is at 8.5% YES, down from 14% yesterday.

The market dropped 5.5 points on the announcement, suggesting traders read the diplomatic framing as a step away from immediate UK naval deployment. The warships through the Strait of Hormuz market has low liquidity, with $508 required to move the price 5 points. The largest move in the past day was a 2-point spike at 5:08 PM.

The US-Iran ceasefire extension sits at 65.5% YES. A European-led security initiative in the Strait could give both sides more room to extend the ceasefire, which would push those odds higher.

The warship deployment market trades $4,354 in USDC daily, thin enough that a single large order could move the price several points. The ceasefire market trades $36,584 daily, a much deeper book with more active participation.

If the Friday video conference produces a concrete UK commitment to deploy, the 8.5% odds would reprice fast. Buying YES at 8.5¢ pays $1 on a successful UK deployment, a 11.76x return. That bet requires believing the UK can go from a planning call to ships in the Strait within days.

Watch for UK Defence Ministry statements and any confirmation of naval movements after Friday’s call. A specific commitment to deploy, with ship names or timelines, would be the clearest signal that odds need to move.

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