France’s finance minister is urging the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with the G7 ready to mitigate war-related economic disruptions. The odds of UK warships passing through the Strait by April 30 are at 6%, down from 12% a week ago.

The UK warships through Hormuz market dropped to 6%. The possibility of diplomatic meetings between the US and Iran by April 30 is at 13.4%. France’s call for reopening Hormuz hasn’t moved the odds on Trump’s military operations in Iran ending by March 1.

The warships market trades $24,906 in face value daily but only $2,086 in actual USDC. It takes just $427 to shift the odds by 5 points, which means a single large order can move the price substantially. The meeting with Iran market is thicker: $48,284 in daily face value, $3,879 in USDC, and it requires $2,672 to move 5 points.

France’s position signals a preference for de-escalation, but without concrete military commitments, these markets remain skeptical. The contrarian play is the UK warships market. At 6¢, a YES share pays $1 if resolved, a 16.67x return. That bet requires believing diplomatic pressure will lead to a UK naval deployment within 14 days.

Watch for Macron’s next diplomatic moves and any G7 statements specifying military actions. The next UK Ministry of Defence update could shift odds quickly.

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