Galaxy Research has lowered its estimate that the CLARITY Act will become law in 2026 to 50%, down from 60% earlier this month, as the Senate calendar leaves lawmakers with a shrinking window to complete the legislation.

The downgrade is mainly tied to timing rather than the substance of the bill. The proposal still needs a unified text combining the versions advanced by the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees, a motion to proceed, floor debate, an amendment process, and further action from the House.

Galaxy Head of Firmwide Research Alex Thorn said Senate Majority Leader John Thune would likely need to announce floor time by early July and bring the bill to a vote before lawmakers leave for the August recess.

The Senate is currently away from Washington, aside from brief sessions where no legislative business is expected, and is scheduled to return on July 13. Its tentative calendar provides only a limited period for floor work before the chamber begins its August break at the end of July.

A scheduling commitment within the next two weeks could push Galaxy’s estimate back toward 60% or higher. Continued silence into the middle of July would likely lead to another downgrade, according to Thorn.

The CLARITY Act cleared the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 in a bipartisan 15 to 9 vote. It was placed on the Senate Legislative Calendar on June 1, but leadership has not announced a floor date or scheduled a motion to begin consideration.

The legislation seeks to establish a federal framework for digital asset markets, including disclosure requirements, consumer protections, and clearer oversight responsibilities for the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The Senate Agriculture Committee advanced its own digital commodity market structure legislation earlier this year. Negotiators must combine that proposal with the Banking Committee text before the legislation can move efficiently through the full Senate.

Several policy disputes also remain unresolved. Democratic lawmakers have pushed for stronger ethics and conflict of interest provisions, while law enforcement officials continue to seek changes to protections for decentralized finance software developers. Banks are also pressing lawmakers to tighten restrictions around rewards paid by stablecoin platforms.

The CLARITY Act will also compete with other Senate priorities, including national security legislation, nominations, and the National Defense Authorization Act. Any delay into September would place the bill closer to the midterm elections, when bipartisan votes become more difficult to schedule.

Galaxy had raised its passage estimate to 75% in May following signs of bipartisan progress before reducing it to 60% in early June. The latest move returns its outlook to an even chance, leaving Senate scheduling as the main factor determining whether the bill can become law this year.