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The Gulf Cooperation Council and United Nations have called for an immediate halt to hostilities in the US-Israel-Iran conflict. The odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 are at 1% YES, down from 12% last week.
Market odds for an April ceasefire remain low. The April 7 market is at 1% YES. The April 15 market is at 6% YES, down from 26% a week ago. Traders doubt these discussions will lead to an immediate ceasefire.
The April 30 market is at 20% YES, showing some optimism but still cautious. A 19-point jump in odds is expected between April 30 and May 31, indicating traders anticipate a significant event during this period.
Volume is strong, with $438,085 in USDC traded across all sub-markets in the last 24 hours. The April 15 market needs over $50K to shift by 5 points, showing solid order book depth. The April 7 market is more prone to swings.
The GCC-UN dialogue is a diplomatic gesture, not a game-changer. With the ceasefire by April 7 priced at 1¢, a YES share pays $1 if resolved — a 100x return. But a breakthrough is needed in the next four days for that bet to be viable. Traders are pricing the odds accurately, given the lack of concrete developments.
Watch for any announcements from Oman or Qatar regarding mediation efforts. These could be the catalysts that change the current outlook.
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