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General McKenzie asserts Iran struggles with targeting U.S. carriers but excels in negotiations. The market for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 sits at 0% YES.
McKenzie’s assessment points to Iran’s limited naval escalation capabilities alongside strong diplomatic tactics. With Operation Epic Fury ongoing, odds of a permanent peace deal remain at zero. The market for military action against Iran ending before April 2026 also reflects skepticism, consistent with McKenzie’s comments on continued military engagements.
Current odds show traders see no imminent breakthrough in hostilities. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 market is at 100% YES, but given McKenzie’s remarks, that certainty likely reflects a temporary pause rather than lasting peace. Zero volume across these markets signals no trader conviction in any dramatic shift.
The source is tier-3, which warrants caution. McKenzie’s comments add context but may not carry enough weight to move current predictions. The absence of volume suggests waiting for more concrete developments before committing capital.
Watch for official statements from CENTCOM or changes in negotiation dynamics. Trump’s next public statement or any sudden shift in Iran’s military posture could move these markets.
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