Israeli President Isaac Herzog is not planning to pardon Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for his corruption trial, instead favoring a plea deal. Netanyahu’s departure from power by the end of 2026 is trading at 5.5% YES on the June 30 market.

The odds dropped from 6% a day ago. The April 30 contract remains nearly flat at 0.1% YES, while the June 30 market is where traders see room for movement. Herzog’s preference for a plea deal, which might include Netanyahu’s political retirement, could act as a catalyst over the coming months.

Daily actual USDC volume for the June 30 market is $1,423, enough to show genuine trading interest but not enough to prevent single large orders from swaying the odds. It takes $9,495 to move the price five percentage points, which means there’s some depth but also room for sharp swings if news breaks.

Herzog’s push for a plea deal over a pardon creates a plausible path to Netanyahu’s departure. Former Supreme Court President Aharon Barak has previously made similar calls. A plea deal would be a strategic move to reduce political tensions in Israel, not just a legal resolution. Buying YES at 5.5¢ offers a 18.2x return if Netanyahu exits by June 30. That bet requires believing a deal is not only possible but likely within the next 67 days.

Watch for any announcements from Netanyahu about resignation or plea negotiations. A formal resignation or a breakdown in coalition support could shift the odds sharply. Herzog’s next public statements and any movement in the legal proceedings are the key indicators.

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