IDF prepares for Lebanon ceasefire starting Thursday evening: Haaretz

The IDF is preparing for a Lebanon ceasefire to begin Thursday evening, according to Haaretz. The market for Israel announcing a suspension of its offensive by April 30, 2026, is now at 79.5%, up from 44% yesterday.

Traders reacted quickly to the Haaretz report, pushing odds in the April 30 market up 32 points in 24 hours. The move tracks optimism around US-mediated talks between Israel and Lebanon. The April 17 market also jumped to 30% YES from 18% a day ago, indicating traders expect something to happen soon.

The term structure shows a 46-point gap between April 17 and April 30, with traders pricing in a near-term catalyst. The May 31 market sits at 88%, reflecting high confidence in longer-term de-escalation.

Daily volume is at $66,325 in USDC, with $2,217 needed to move the price 5 points. A 9-point spike at 1:20 PM was the largest single move of the session. The June 30 market trades at 93.5%, with traders treating an eventual suspension as near-certain.

The IDF’s ceasefire preparation is a concrete step, but the situation is fluid. If US-mediated talks produce Hezbollah’s withdrawal north of the Litani River, odds will climb further. At 68¢, a YES share pays $1 if the ceasefire is announced by April 30, a 1.47x return.

Watch for Netanyahu announcements or IDF statements confirming suspension. The next moves in the Washington talks will determine market direction.

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