IMF warns Middle East war could push oil prices to $90 by June

The IMF warned that the ongoing Middle East war has dealt an “unprecedented shock” to regional economies, with oil prices predicted to rise. Crude oil hitting $90 by the end of June sits at ? YES on Polymarket.

Market reaction

The IMF’s assessment has increased trader focus on the crude oil price predictions by end of June. With 75 days to go, the market prices in continued disruptions to oil supply from the conflict involving the US, Iran, and Israel. The war has already affected the Strait of Hormuz, with significant rerouting of oil transit, which traders see as a factor pushing prices toward the $90 mark.

No current volume data suggests trading hasn’t picked up yet, but market sentiment leans bullish. The IMF report also didn’t move odds for Gulf state military action against Iran, which remain low at 6% YES for April 30.

Why it matters

The IMF’s warning points to no quick economic rebound, suggesting prolonged supply disruptions. For traders, buying YES shares at ? could pay $1 if crude hits $90, offering a potential x return. This bet depends on persistent geopolitical tensions and their supply chain effects.

What to watch

Watch for statements from the EIA and Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister. Any significant geopolitical developments or supply data could rapidly shift odds.

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