India’s government is assembling a sweeping policy package designed to stave off a full-blown currency crisis, as the rupee slides toward levels that would have been unthinkable just a year ago. The currency is now trading near 95-96 per US dollar, making it Asia’s worst-performing currency this fiscal year with double-digit depreciation.

The Reserve Bank of India has already thrown over $100 billion at the problem through interventions in spot and forward markets.

What’s driving the crisis

The ongoing conflict in Iran has sent oil prices sharply higher, and India, one of the world’s largest crude importers, is feeling every dollar of that increase. The result is a dramatically wider trade deficit. Foreign investors have been pulling money out of India at a pace that has alarmed policymakers, selling rupees and buying dollars on the way out, which compounds the pressure from the trade deficit.

While India’s reserves remain substantial at approximately $700 billion, the pace of depletion has clearly rattled the Modi government and the RBI under Governor Malhotra.

What the rescue package might include

Interest rate hikes are on the table. Raising rates makes rupee-denominated assets more attractive to foreign investors, theoretically slowing capital outflows.

Targeted tax incentives are also being considered, likely aimed at attracting or retaining foreign capital in specific sectors.

Import restrictions, particularly on gold, represent another lever. India is the world’s second-largest consumer of gold, and gold imports are a significant contributor to the trade deficit. Restricting gold inflows would directly reduce dollar demand, providing some relief to the rupee.

The RBI has already taken preliminary steps, including capping bank currency positions to manage rupee volatility.

What this means for crypto investors

There’s no direct crypto component in the rescue package being assembled. Discussions around crypto taxation in India are reportedly being handled on a separate track from the immediate macroeconomic response.

If India raises interest rates aggressively, it tightens liquidity in one of the world’s largest economies. If gold imports get restricted, some portion of that demand could theoretically migrate toward digital assets as an alternative store of value.