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Indian refiners used yuan to pay for Iranian oil under a temporary U.S. sanctions waiver expiring April 19, 2026. On Polymarket, crude oil hitting $90 by the end of June sits at
Market reaction
Indian Oil Corporation and Reliance Industries made the purchases in yuan rather than dollars, marking India’s first Iranian oil buy in seven years. The waiver was designed to ease global oil supply pressures. Crude Oil Price Predictions by End of June odds have not moved, though the waiver’s expiration date creates a clear deadline for reassessment.
Why it matters
The transaction involves three countries already at the center of sanctions friction: Iran, China, and India. Iran’s partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz adds a supply-side risk. Using yuan instead of dollars is a financial leverage move, not a military one, but the waiver’s expiration without renewal could tighten supply chains and push prices higher. A potential 15% increase in oil prices has been floated if supply disruptions escalate.
What to watch
– Whether the U.S. extends the waiver past April 19, 2026 – ICICI Bank’s role in facilitating future transactions – Any further restrictions on Strait of Hormuz transit
At 0¢ YES, there is currently no payout on the $90 crude contract. But the waiver expiration and Hormuz situation create conditions where that number could change quickly.
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