Intel’s first-quarter revenue increase, driven by AI server processor demand, has pushed odds of NVIDIA being the largest company by market cap on June 30 down to 89.5% YES, from 90% yesterday.

The April 30 market is unmoved at 99.5% YES, showing traders treat Intel’s gains as irrelevant over the next few days. The June 30 market tells a different story: the dip to 89.5% YES suggests traders view Intel’s AI processor traction as a two-month concern rather than an immediate one.

The June contract requires $48,168 to move odds 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity. Actual USDC volume is $19,475, leaving room for sharper moves if Intel posts another strong quarter or NVIDIA reports disappointing results. The largest recent shift was a half-point drop, more cautious repricing than any kind of sell-off.

At 10.5¢, a NO share on the June contract pays $1 if NVIDIA isn’t the largest company by market cap, a 9.5x return. Intel’s revenue growth in AI server processors gives that bet a concrete catalyst. Traders positioning for a shift by June should track further Intel product announcements and NVIDIA’s next quarterly results, both of which could move this market meaningfully.

Key dates to watch: Intel’s next earnings report and any NVIDIA updates on supply chain or production capacity. Either could swing the June contract.

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