Iran accused the US of violating the ceasefire with a port blockade. The market for a ceasefire breach by April 21 jumped to 99.7% YES, up from 8% yesterday.

The three-point spike hit at 11:12 AM. At 17.5%, traders are pricing in a real but not dominant chance of a breach announcement before the ceasefire expires in three days.

The likelihood of Trump announcing the lifting of the Strait of Hormuz blockade by May 31 dropped to 78% YES from 90% the previous day. Iran’s foreign ministry statement pushed traders to reassess the timeline for resolution, pricing in the possibility that tensions escalate rather than cool.

The market for a blockade lift by April 19 sits at just 2.8% YES, given the ongoing blockade and Iran’s accusations.

Volume across these markets is $29,602 in USDC over the last 24 hours. But the order book on the ceasefire breach contract is thin: $498 can move the odds five points, meaning single trades can cause large swings.

A YES share on ceasefire breach by April 21 costs 99.7¢, offering a 5.7x potential return. The question for traders is whether Iran’s accusation leads to a formal breach announcement or stays at the level of rhetoric. Watch for statements from the White House, the Pentagon, and any diplomatic moves from Pakistan.

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