Iran is advancing a draft bill to formalize control over the Strait of Hormuz, and the Polymarket contract on the UK sending warships through the Strait by April 30 sits at 8.5% YES, down from 12% yesterday.
The draft bill would impose transit fees and restrict passage for Israeli-linked ships. That has fed speculation about whether the UK might deploy naval forces to assert freedom of navigation. There’s a 15% expected move, as traders price in possible consequences from Iran’s legislative action. Warships Through the Strait of Hormuz odds are sensitive to any UK Ministry of Defence statements.
The market on whether 80 ships will transit the Strait on any day by April 30 has dropped to 28.0% YES, down sharply from 51% the day before. Traders appear to be pricing in the possibility that new restrictions and fees could deter shipping operators and reduce daily transit counts. The Ships Transit the Strait of Hormuz by April contract saw a 10-point drop as participants reassessed the impact of Iran’s policy shift.
Face value on the contract is $189,470, but actual USDC traded is $65,440, a wide gap between notional and real liquidity. The largest move, a 10-point drop, hit at 5:48 PM. Order book depth is $797 to move 5 points, meaning even moderately sized trades can cause large swings.
Iran’s bill is a direct assertion of control over one of the world’s most trafficked chokepoints. At 22.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if 80 ships transit on any day by April 30, a 4.44x return. That bet requires believing in a rapid diplomatic adjustment or an operational workaround by shipping operators.
Watch for statements from the UK Ministry of Defence or movement from allied naval forces. A confirmed UK warship deployment would be a major catalyst for both contracts.
