Iran agrees to open Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran ceasefire deal

Senator Vance announced that Iran has agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz. The US-Iran ceasefire market for April 15 now sits at 100% YES, up from 12% just 24 hours ago.

The move follows news of a two-week ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan, requiring Iran to ensure “complete, immediate, and safe” access through the strait. April 30 and June 30 markets have also hit 100% YES.

Daily trading volume reached $1,385,525 in USDC. The largest single move was a 24-point spike at 10:34 PM, pushing odds to 100% for the April 15 ceasefire. Traders are pricing in diplomatic success, though the strait’s opening remains limited and under Iranian control.

At 100% YES, shares are a straight bet on the ceasefire holding through April 15. The shift toward diplomacy during active tensions marks a real change in trajectory. But Iran’s continued control over transit means the agreement’s durability depends on enforcement, not just the announcement.

Next to watch: CENTCOM statements and any shifts in rhetoric from Trump or IRGC leadership. Any break from the current diplomatic track could move these markets fast.

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