Iran and US agree to two-week ceasefire amid Operation Epic Fury

Iran and the US have agreed to a two-week ceasefire as Operation Epic Fury continues. The odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 have hit 100% YES, up from 12% just 24 hours ago.

The April 15 market saw a 24-point spike at 10:34 PM, jumping from 67% to 90% in minutes. The longer-term April 30 market also hit 100% YES, with a 16-point spike at 10:33 PM. The June 30 and December 31 markets both reached 100% YES, meaning traders expect the ceasefire to last well beyond the initial two-week window.

Meanwhile, the odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 have dropped to 8.5% YES, down from 12% a day ago. The decline tracks with the ceasefire news: a regime that can negotiate a deal with Washington looks less likely to collapse. The regime fall market remains thin, with just $93,869 in actual USDC traded over the last 24 hours and only $10,002 needed to move the odds 5 points.

With all ceasefire markets at 100%, the remaining question is whether the agreement holds. Geopolitical markets can reprice fast; any renewed strikes or hawkish rhetoric from either side would force a reassessment.

Watch for official statements from Trump and Rubio, and for the role of intermediaries like Oman and Qatar. Their language on next steps, whether talks continue or stall, will signal whether the ceasefire extends past the initial two weeks.

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