Iran announces ceasefire, reopens Strait of Hormuz amid unclear terms

A ceasefire in the Iran war has been announced, though key terms remain unclear and Iran has partially reopened the Strait of Hormuz. The ceasefire by April 15 market is at 100% YES, up from 18% a week ago.

Markets have moved to 100% YES across all sub-markets following the ceasefire announcement. The April 30 and May 31 markets are also at 100% YES. Traders are treating a formal cessation of hostilities as settled, even with unresolved terms and ongoing tensions.

Combined 24-hour USDC trading volume across these markets is at $3,232,549. The largest single market move happened over the past week, and since the announcement, prices have flattened at the ceiling with no additional volatility.

The ceasefire’s effectiveness is still in question because of Iran’s only partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and unresolved demands from both sides. For traders, 100% YES odds across all sub-markets mean there is no room for further gains unless the situation deteriorates. At 100¢, a YES share pays $1, with zero speculative upside remaining.

Watch for Pakistan-mediated talks on Friday and Saturday. Any movement on sanctions relief, regional negotiations, or Trump’s diplomatic language could shift these markets, particularly if talks produce a clear breakthrough or collapse.

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