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Iran’s Revolutionary Guards hit steel and aluminum sites in Bahrain and the UAE tied to the US, escalating tensions. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday.
The attack shifts focus from military to economic targets, increasing pressure. The market for US forces entering Iran by April 30 sits at 52% YES, down from 57% a day ago, showing uncertainty about a US military response. The December 31 market stands at 64% YES, indicating expectations of prolonged conflict.
In the ceasefire market, the April 7 sub-market is nearly dismissed at 8% YES. The April 30 market saw a slight rise to 38.5% YES, suggesting traders anticipate some diplomatic efforts after immediate tensions. However, the attack and Iran’s warnings signal bearish prospects for a quick resolution.
Trading volume is significant: $2,577,591 in USDC across relevant markets. Institutional-grade depth shows $10,273 needed to move 5 points on the March 31 market. The largest move was a 4-point drop in the April 30 sub-market, reflecting a rapid sentiment shift.
The attacks escalate the situation, affecting ceasefire probabilities. Iran’s targeting of economic infrastructure could trigger a US military response, potentially increasing the odds of US forces entering Iran. Without concrete actions or announcements, traders remain cautious.
Watch for Pentagon statements or troop movements from US bases in the Gulf. Changes in rhetoric or new deployments would be pivotal for traders.
Markets Impacted
- US forces enter Iran by March 31? — currently 0.1% YES
- US forces enter Iran by April 30? — currently 52.5% YES
- US forces enter Iran by December 31? — currently 64.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 8.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 18.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 38.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 55.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 62.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 73.5% YES
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