Iran blocks Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude surpasses $120/barrel

Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a global fuel crisis, with Brent crude topping $120/barrel. The market for the fall of the Iranian regime by June 30 sits at 10.5% YES, up from 8% yesterday.

Market reaction

The Iranian regime fall market moved from 8% to 10.5% in the past 24 hours. Unlike Iraq’s 2003 invasion, this conflict directly disrupts global energy supplies, which raises the probability of internal instability. Damage to Qatar’s LNG complex and Iran’s sustained rejection of ceasefire proposals add pressure. With 79 days to resolution, the market remains cautious.

Why it matters

Trading volume on the Iranian regime fall contract is $85,435 in USDC. It takes $27,572 to move the odds 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a 1-point spike, consistent with sustained interest rather than a single large bet.

What to watch

The blockade’s effect on energy prices puts economic strain on the regime itself. The source is tier 3, but the underlying concern is real: prolonged disruptions could destabilize Iran internally. Buying YES at 11¢ pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30, a 9.09x return. To justify that price, you’d need to expect further internal strife or military defections within 79 days.

Key signals: Mojtaba Khamenei’s public appearances, IRGC leadership shifts, and any US intelligence reports on regime stability. Each of these could move the contract sharply.

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