Iran insists on keeping its military gains and has framed current US negotiations as a “last chance.” The ceasefire by April 15 market sits at 100% YES.

Market reaction

All active sub-markets for the ceasefire show 100% YES. The April 15 market, with 5 days left, is frozen, and traders don’t appear to anticipate an imminent resolution. The US forces entering Iran by April 30 market is also fixed at 100% YES. Iran’s firm stance raises the likelihood of further conflict, potentially involving US ground troops. Trading remains inactive with no shifts in sentiment.

Why it matters

Iran’s insistence on maintaining its military position while calling the talks a “last chance” points to a real risk of escalation. The permanent peace deal by April 22 looks increasingly unlikely, with Iran’s demands clashing with US terms. For traders, this means considering contrarian positions in related markets. Betting against a deal could offer a decent payout if tensions continue.

What to watch

No recent trading activity or price shifts exist across these markets. Watch for updates from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar, any shifts in Iran’s negotiating stance, or changes in US military posture in the region. These are the indicators most likely to break the current stalemate in market pricing.

API access

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.