The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is charging tolls of up to $2 million per tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The market for 80 ships transiting by April 30 sits at 22.5% YES, down from 51% yesterday.
Market reaction
Odds for 80 ships transiting dropped 28.5 points in the last 24 hours. A 10-point fall at 5:48 PM was the largest single move, driven by traders pricing in shipping disruptions. Liquidity is thin: just $797 can move this market 5 points, making it vulnerable to large trades.
Why it matters
Iran’s de facto toll system is pushing vessels to reroute. If that continues, transit odds will stay under pressure. The IRGC’s actions look like a long-term leverage play, and they complicate any ceasefire negotiations that depend on maritime control.
What to watch
A YES share at 22.5¢ pays $1 if 80 ships transit by April 30, a 4.4x return. Betting on recovery means betting on diplomatic breakthroughs or alternative shipping routes within the next 12 days. Watch maritime intelligence reports from Windward and statements from U.S. Central Command. A U.S.-established “safe pathway” for commercial traffic could shift the current bearish sentiment.
