Conflicting claims from the US and Iran over a potential deal have emerged, with President Trump suggesting a deal is imminent while Iran cites unresolved issues. The odds for the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz being lifted by May 31 sit at 86.5% YES, unchanged from yesterday.
Market reaction
In the April 19 market, odds are at 17.5% YES with three days left, following a 6-point drop. The April 17 market is nearly defunct at 0.5% YES. Traders are skeptical of an imminent resolution but see more potential for a breakthrough by end of May.
Combined 24-hour trading volume across these markets reached $162,847 in face value, with $33,260 in actual USDC traded. Depth remains modest: only $3,730 is needed to move the May 31 odds by 5 points. The largest move over the past day was a 2-point spike in the May 31 market, suggesting some speculative activity but no major shift in sentiment.
Why it matters
Trump’s optimistic tone on negotiations contrasts with Iran’s assertion of “major issues” remaining, pointing to a genuine impasse rather than noise. If Iran’s stance persists, the probability of lifting the blockade soon drops. At 86.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if the blockade is lifted by May 31, a 1.22x return. That price implies confidence in resolution within the 45-day window.
What to watch
Official announcements from the White House or the Pentagon could shift these odds quickly. Trump’s statements on Truth Social, in particular, could swing market sentiment.
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