Iran claims Israel behind Kharrazi assassination to disrupt diplomacy

Iran’s UN envoy claims Kharrazi’s assassination is part of Israel’s broader strategy to thwart diplomatic efforts. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 are at 9.5% YES, down from 14% a week ago.

The assassination of Kamal Kharrazi has injected fresh volatility into the Iranian regime fall market. The odds have decreased to 9.5%, but the killing of a senior diplomatic figure raises direct questions about Iran’s internal stability. With 81 days left until the market’s resolution date on June 30, traders are weighing the ongoing conflict’s impact on Iran’s leadership.

The Iran leadership change market remains highly speculative. Kharrazi’s death, a deliberate strike on a senior diplomat, signals an escalation beyond typical military targets. This raises the stakes for potential leadership upheaval, though no immediate changes have been confirmed.

Volume in the regime fall market sits at $23,487 in USDC over the past 24 hours. It takes $32,505 to move the odds by five points, which points to a relatively stable market unless significant news breaks. The largest price move in the last 24 hours was half a point, consistent with cautious trader sentiment.

The Reza Pahlavi entry into Iran market shows no direct impact from Kharrazi’s assassination. Without regime collapse indicators or an invitation for Pahlavi’s return, this market remains stagnant.

At a price of 9.5¢, a YES share in the regime fall market pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30, a 10.5x return. The calculation for traders comes down to whether this pattern of targeted strikes will catalyze broader instability.

Watch for any assembly activities by the Assembly of Experts or public appearances by Mojtaba Khamenei. These signals, or their absence, will likely drive market movements in the coming weeks.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.