Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, fires on vessels, escalating US-Iran tensions

Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and fired on vessels, escalating conflict. The US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 market is at 19.5% YES, down from 40% yesterday.

Market reaction

The odds for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 dropped from 40% to 19.5% in 24 hours. The April 30 market also fell, now at 39.5% YES. The May 31 and June 30 markets sit at 58.5% and 67.5%, so traders are pricing in a resolution later rather than sooner.

The ceasefire market moved too. Odds of Trump ending the ceasefire by April 21 jumped to 20.5%, up from 6% yesterday, pricing in a real chance the ceasefire collapses given the blockade.

Why it matters

Trading volumes tell the story. USDC volume for the peace deal market reached $610,678, with a 5-point drop at 5:56 PM. It takes $9,366 to move the price 5 points, meaning the order book is reasonably thick. The ceasefire market is much thinner: only $880 moves odds by 5 points, leaving it vulnerable to large single trades.

What to watch

The blockade makes a permanent peace deal by April 22 a long shot. A YES share at 20¢ pays $1, but the odds reflect how unlikely that is right now. Any credible diplomatic moves or military de-escalation before the ceasefire lapses would be the catalyst for a reversal.

Watch for announcements from Trump or details from White House meetings. Hegseth, the CIA director, and the Joint Chiefs chairman are all present, which points to decisions coming soon. If the ceasefire holds without further aggressive actions, the market could stabilize.

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