Press TV reports that a plan to close the Strait of Hormuz was ordered by Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei in 2011, and some elements of that plan are currently being enacted. This comes amid heightened tensions, as Iran declared the strait effectively closed to commercial shipping due to alleged ceasefire violations. The closure affects nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply, raising concerns over potential disruptions in global oil markets. Khamenei, who was assassinated earlier this year, had historically threatened to close the strait in response to sanctions.

WTI crude oil markets have responded with significant activity, particularly in contracts related to price increases. The odds of WTI crude oil reaching higher price points in July 2026 have notably increased, suggesting that market participants see a scenario consistent with potential supply disruptions. The largest increase in these odds was observed in the market pricing $90, which surged from 13% to 30% over the past 24 hours. These movements indicate heightened market sensitivity to geopolitical developments in the region.

Key Takeaways

• Market activity suggests participants view the Strait of Hormuz closure as consistent with potential oil supply disruptions.
• The odds of WTI crude oil prices reaching $90 in July 2026 rose significantly, reflecting increased concerns over supply constraints.
• Historical context of threats to close the Strait underlines the current geopolitical tensions influencing market behavior.

What to Watch

Monitor for statements from key actors such as the U.S. President or Iranian officials that could provide clarity on the situation. Any announcements regarding the reopening of the Strait or further escalation could have substantial implications on market pricing. The U.S. military’s stance on the legality of the closure and any potential interventions will also be critical in shaping market expectations. Additionally, watch for reports from OPEC+ that could address supply adjustments in response to the closure.

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