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Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, causing the largest oil supply shock since the 1970s. WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April 2026 is at significant risk given current market conditions.
The closure has slashed oil flows from over 20 million barrels per day to 3.8 million. With April 30 just 10 days away, traders are watching whether WTI can reach $160 amid ongoing US-Iran tensions. Crude futures are in steep backwardation, with the curve pricing in severe short-term supply constraints.
Trading volume is thin, with zero face value reported in the past 24 hours, suggesting the market is still absorbing the implications of the strait’s closure. The backwardation structure shows traders pricing in immediate supply risks, while longer-term contracts anticipate easing beyond the early 2030s.
For traders, the current scenario is high-stakes. At 10 days out, a YES share payoff could be substantial if WTI reaches $160. The fragile US-Iran ceasefire makes further price spikes a real possibility.
Watch for statements from Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud and Donald Trump, as well as EIA reports. Any developments in US-Iran negotiations or OPEC+ production policies could swing the market dramatically.
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