Iran has confirmed it will attend Saturday’s US-Iran talks in Islamabad, and the ceasefire-by-April-15 market on Polymarket now sits at 100% YES, up from 18% a week ago.

Market reaction

The April 15 market has hit 100%, with traders treating a formal ceasefire announcement as a near-certainty. The April 30 market is also at 100%, meaning traders expect the ceasefire to hold past mid-April. At these prices, there is essentially no implied risk of immediate escalation.

Volume across all sub-markets is $3,232,549 in USDC over the last 24 hours. Order book depth is thick enough that moving prices would require significant capital, which points to institutional participation. The largest single move was the April 15 market jumping to 100%.

Why it matters

Iran’s willingness to engage while Lebanon tensions persist suggests Tehran is prioritizing broader strategic goals like sanctions relief and nuclear discussions over proxy conflicts. At 100¢, a YES share pays $1 if resolved, but the price already assumes certainty. Traders betting on prolonged peace should watch for shifts in Trump’s rhetoric or intermediary actions from Oman or Qatar.

What to watch

Secretary of State Rubio’s statements and CENTCOM operational updates. Any break from the current diplomatic tone could move these markets.

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