Iran confirms no attacks during ceasefire, supporting US-Iran negotiations

The IRGC confirmed that Iran’s forces have not attacked any country during the ceasefire. The market for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 is at 100% YES.

The announcement supports the ceasefire holding and reduces immediate escalation risks. The odds for April 30 and beyond also sit at 100% YES. Iran’s compliance is consistent with the ongoing US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad.

For the Iranian regime fall by June 30, odds decreased slightly to 11.5% YES. Ceasefire adherence suggests internal stability, reducing short-term regime collapse likelihood. This market remains thin, with only $36,383 in USDC traded, making it vulnerable to large trades.

The market for US forces entering Iran by April 30 remains at 100% YES. With Iran’s compliance, the likelihood of US military escalation drops, and traders may need to reassess this market soon.

The IRGC’s statement is a positive signal for the ceasefire’s durability but not a game-changer for broader geopolitical dynamics. At 100¢, a YES share offers no upside — traders expect the ceasefire to hold. Any deviation would require significant developments, like renewed proxy attacks or breakdowns in negotiations.

Watch for statements from CENTCOM or changes in Israel’s military posture. The next Pentagon briefing could clarify US strategic intentions.

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