Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson confirmed no date is set for talks, pushing the probability of a permanent US-Iran peace deal by April 22, 2026, to 25.5% YES, down from 26% earlier.

Market reaction

The biggest movement is in the Iran Uranium Enrichment Agreement market. Odds for ending enrichment by April 30, 2026, are at 39.2% YES, up from 21% a day ago, suggesting traders expect an eventual resolution even without a clear timeline. The US-Iran Diplomatic Meeting Locations market is flat at 3.2% YES.

Why it matters

The peace deal market has $1,101,542 in face value traded daily but only $214,801 in actual USDC, a gap that points to hedging rather than directional conviction. The largest price move was a minor 3-point increase at 1:48 AM. The order book requires $2,215 to move the price by 5 points, showing moderate resistance. With no talks scheduled and the April 22 deadline approaching, the enrichment market’s optimism and the peace deal market’s drift are pulling in opposite directions.

What to watch

At 25.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if a deal materializes by April 22, a 3.9x return. That bet depends on last-minute breakthroughs, with Islamabad talks as a potential catalyst. Announcements from President Trump or Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, along with any IAEA inspections or statements, could shift nuclear policy expectations and move these markets.

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