Iran confirms no nuclear talks with US amid diplomatic stalemate

## Market Snapshot

In the “US-Iran Nuclear Deal by June” market, current pricing shows a 26.5% chance of a YES outcome, down from 28% a day ago and 48% a week ago. The “US-Iran Nuclear Deal before 2027” market reflects a 55.5% chance of a YES outcome, a slight decrease from 56% in the past 24 hours.

## Key Takeaways

– Iran’s declaration appears to decrease expectations for a nuclear deal by June, consistent with ongoing diplomatic challenges. – The statement suggests a stagnant diplomatic environment, reducing the likelihood of a US-Iran nuclear agreement before 2027. – Market activity implies decreased anticipation for an imminent diplomatic meeting between the US and Iran.

## Article Body

Iran’s National Security Commission spokesperson announced that the country is prepared for all scenarios and confirmed there are no ongoing nuclear negotiations with the United States. This statement follows a period of intensified conflict and diplomatic stalemate after US-Israel military operations targeted Iranian nuclear sites earlier in 2026. The stalled diplomatic efforts have seen Iran reject US demands for permanent dismantling of its nuclear facilities, amid a backdrop of regional tensions and military activities. The lack of negotiations indicates continued hostilities and a potential escalation rather than a resolution.

## Market Interpretation

The statement from Iran’s spokesperson is consistent with a decreased likelihood of a US-Iran nuclear deal by June, reflected by the market’s current pricing at 26.5% YES. The broader outlook for a deal before 2027 also appears less probable, with a moderate impact on the relevant market, now at 55.5% YES. This development suggests a high-impact scenario for the June deadline market and a moderate-impact scenario for the 2027 timeline.

## What to Watch

Observers should monitor any official statements from the US or Iranian governments that might indicate a shift in diplomatic stance. Additionally, any military developments or new sanctions could further influence market expectations. Key dates include potential diplomatic meetings or announcements from mediators like Oman or the IAEA, which could alter the current trajectory of US-Iran relations.

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