Disruption in global oil supplies from the Iran conflict has pushed long-haul flight costs from Europe up by over $100, with traders in the crude oil price prediction market repricing the probability of oil reaching $90 by June 2026.

Market reaction

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has halted a large share of global oil flow, is the primary driver. The market has 71 days left until resolution. Current odds for crude oil hitting $90 by the end of June are not specified, but the market remains reactive to supply disruptions. The market’s face value is at $0, indicating no recent trades.

Why it matters

The ongoing conflict and talks in Pakistan have not produced a ceasefire, keeping supply risk high. Without a ceasefire resolution, traders are betting on continued upward pressure on oil prices. The $100 increase in European long-haul flight costs is a direct consequence of these disruptions and may draw more traders into oil price markets.

What to watch

Three factors will determine where this market moves: changes in US-Iran talks, OPEC production decisions, and shifts in global oil demand. A YES share pays out if the price target is hit by the deadline. The absence of a ceasefire means the supply-side risk premium stays priced in until negotiations produce a result.

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