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Iran reaffirmed ongoing diplomacy with the US after talks in Pakistan, and the Polymarket odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 sit at
Market reaction
The ceasefire market shows 100% YES across all active sub-markets, including April 15, April 30, and May 31. No trades have occurred recently, and there is no volume, meaning traders see no reason to hedge against immediate conflict escalation.
Why it matters
The market for a permanent peace deal by April 22 is less certain. Iran’s statement on continued diplomacy is a positive signal, but entrenched positions on nuclear and regional issues keep any deal far from guaranteed. The deadlock persists, though ongoing talks prevent the odds from sliding lower.
What to watch
The absence of trading and price movement across all sub-markets means traders are either holding with conviction or waiting for a more definitive signal. At 100% YES, buying YES isn’t an option, but announcements from the White House or Pakistan could shift the picture.
Watch Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials like Abbas Araghchi. Statements from either side could move the permanent deal market. Any changes in rhetoric or new proposals on nuclear terms would be the most likely catalyst for a breakout in either direction.
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