Iran criticizes ceasefire violations near Lavan and Siri islands

Iran’s president criticized ceasefire violations around Lavan and Siri islands in a call with Pakistan’s prime minister, but the “US x Iran ceasefire by April 15” market sits at 100.0% YES, up from 12% just 24 hours ago.

All sub-markets now indicate 100% YES for a ceasefire by April 30 and beyond. Both the April 15 and April 30 markets price in complete confidence in a formal cessation of hostilities. Traders appear convinced that the violations won’t derail the peace process.

The “US x Iran ceasefire by April 15” market has volume at $1,385,525 in USDC traded daily, with a 24-point spike from 67% to 90% YES overnight. The market reads these violations as noise rather than a deal-breaker.

Iran’s warning of a “regret-inducing” response initially looked like it could threaten the ceasefire’s stability. But the market hasn’t flinched. A YES share priced at 100% offers no upside unless a surprise breakdown occurs, meaning traders are fully committed to the ceasefire holding through the deadline.

Watch for signals from IRGC leadership or statements from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar. A move from either side could shift market sentiment quickly.

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