Iran lost over 18.5 million gallons of fuel, prompting natural gas consumption cuts after war-related facility damage. The odds for the Iranian regime falling by June 30 are at 8% YES.
Iran’s energy crisis is pushing traders to reassess the stability of the Iranian regime. The June 30 market dipped from 8% to 7.5% over the past 24 hours, a slight decrease in confidence for regime change. The April 30 market remains static at 0.1% YES with just a day to resolve.
The term structure shows a 7-point spread between April and June markets, suggesting traders expect a possible catalyst in the coming months that could increase instability. Combined face value volume is $1,185,932, actual USDC volume is $49,832, and $44,173 is needed to move the June market by 5 points.
The conflict’s impact on energy infrastructure, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has traders watching for disruptions in global crude oil markets. No current Polymarket odds exist for crude oil hitting $90 by the end of June, but a prolonged conflict could drive prices higher.
At 8¢, a YES share pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30, a potential 12.5x return. Traders betting YES need to believe that economic strain and internal pressures will produce serious regime challenges within two months.
Watch for announcements from the IRGC Supreme Council and Assembly of Experts. Changes or public appearances by figures like Mojtaba Khamenei could shift the market significantly.
