Iran demands Hezbollah inclusion in US ceasefire talks, threatens escalation

The US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 market sits at 100% YES, up sharply from 18% a week ago, even as Iran conditions continued peace on Hezbollah’s inclusion in any deal.

In the US-Iran ceasefire market, all active sub-markets are priced at 100% YES, including April 15 and April 30. This pricing implies absolute certainty of short-term peace, even though Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz and demands Hezbollah’s inclusion or threatens escalation.

The Iranian regime fall by June 30 market tells a different story. Odds are at 11.5% YES, up from 8% a day ago. The market is thin: only $22,171 is needed to move prices 5 points, meaning relatively small trades can push the number around.

The 100% ceasefire pricing deserves skepticism. Iran’s strategic choices around Hezbollah could still break the peace that traders are treating as a certainty. A YES share in the regime fall market at 12¢ offers a potential 8.33x return if the regime collapses by June.

Watch for IRGC actions, diplomatic moves from Oman and Qatar, the next Pentagon briefing, or any shift in Trump’s language on Iran. Any of these could break the current pricing consensus.

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