Iran is demanding sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and full sanctions relief before engaging in talks with the US. The market for Trump agreeing to these demands by April sits at 0% YES.

The ceasefire by April 15 remains at 100% YES, but Iran’s stance on Hormuz sovereignty raises questions about whether that confidence is warranted. The April 30 and May 31 markets also sit at 100% YES, pricing in sustained ceasefire even as Iran’s demands make direct negotiations harder to start.

The UK military action against Iran market ticked up to 4% YES from 3% a week ago. Volume at $261 in USDC over the past 24 hours makes this a thin market where small orders can move the price, so the shift looks speculative rather than conviction-driven.

Iran’s demands for both Hormuz sovereignty and full sanctions relief leave little room for compromise, and the ceasefire markets at 100% may be mispricing the risk that negotiations stall entirely. For traders, Iran’s maximalist opening position lowers the probability of a quick diplomatic deal.

Watch for any signs of flexibility from either side, particularly willingness to negotiate terms short of full sovereignty or complete sanctions relief. Statements from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar could indicate whether back-channel progress is possible.

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