Iran insists on ending the war with reparations, while Hezbollah continues its attacks. The odds of a ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 8% from 26% last week.

Iran’s demands and Hezbollah’s actions are hitting market expectations. The April 7 ceasefire market is at 8%, showing doubt about immediate peace. The April 15 market sits at 18%, and the April 30 market at 38%, indicating traders see a possible shift later this month.

Trading volume is strong, with $1.37M in USDC traded across all sub-markets. The April 7 market needs $15K to move 5 points, showing decent depth. A recent 2-point drop at 8:13 AM highlights bearish sentiment.

Iran’s demands for guarantees and reparations, alongside Hezbollah’s continued attacks, suggest a diplomatic deadlock. A YES share at 8¢ offers a 12.5x return if resolved, but this requires belief in a sudden breakthrough within five days. Traders should watch for any moves from Oman or Qatar that could shift odds.

Watch for CENTCOM statements or any UN-related meetings. These could be crucial in changing the ceasefire outlook.

Markets Impacted

• US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 8.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 18.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 38.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 55.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 62.5% YES
• US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 73.5% YES

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