Iran demands US cease attacks for ceasefire, traders expect April 15 deal

An envoy stated the ceasefire depends on the US ending attacks under Iran’s conditions. Ceasefire by April 15 sits at 100% YES, up from 12% yesterday.

The April 15 market saw a 24-point leap in one minute, driven by $1,385,525 in USDC traded. The April 30 market moved from 64% to 80% in a similar window. All markets are now priced at 100% YES, which implies traders expect a formal announcement, even though the envoy’s statement attached specific preconditions.

Iran’s demands include permanent war cessation and control over the Strait of Hormuz. The market prices in full resolution, but the envoy’s framing raises a real question: if Iran insists on its 10-point plan without negotiation, 100% pricing may not match the actual probability. The absence of a mutual agreement could still derail the process.

Trading volume hit $5,188,952 in USDC over the last 24 hours across these markets. Face value of positions totals $8,116,046, masking the true leverage involved. The largest move, a 24-point spike at 10:34 PM, shows how sensitive this market is to diplomatic signals.

At 100¢, a YES share pays $1, meaning there is no upside left, only downside risk if talks break down. Watch for Trump’s language or intermediary activity from Oman or Qatar, as either could reintroduce uncertainty fast.

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