Iran denied Trump’s suggestion of a uranium handover to secure peace. The market for Iran surrendering its stockpile by April 30 is at 45% YES, up from 25% yesterday but likely to face pressure.

The rejection has shifted confidence across multiple markets. Iran ending uranium enrichment by April 30 sits at 44.4% YES, up from 35% but still weighted toward skepticism. The May 31 market for the US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium is at 29.0% YES, unchanged from 24 hours ago.

Total USDC traded across these markets is $41,397. The April 30 uranium surrender market saw a 13-point spike driven by concentrated trading interest. At $184 to move 5 percentage points, this market remains thin enough that single large trades can meaningfully shift the odds.

Iran’s denial points to a diplomatic impasse with no obvious path to quick resolution. The current price of 33.4¢ on the April 30 surrender market means a YES share pays $1 if Iran agrees to surrender its stockpile, a potential 3x return. That bet requires believing in a major diplomatic breakthrough within two weeks.

Watch for statements from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. Any shift in Tehran’s position or mediator announcements from Pakistan could move these markets fast.

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