Iran publicly rejected claims that it agreed to surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile, throwing cold water on what US officials had characterized as meaningful progress in nuclear negotiations.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei stated on May 22 that Tehran would not transfer its enriched uranium abroad, calling US demands unacceptable.

Two countries, two very different stories

Between May 23 and 24, US officials told The New York Times that Iran had made a general commitment regarding its uranium stockpile. No public confirmation from Tehran followed. In fact, the opposite happened.

President Trump and unnamed administration officials have framed the talks as producing a tentative agreement, one in which Iran would relinquish its uranium as part of a broader deal. Iran’s Supreme Leader, meanwhile, issued directives reinforcing that near-weapons-grade uranium must remain inside the country.

Pre-2026 data from the International Atomic Energy Agency showed that Iran’s uranium stockpile included hundreds of kilograms enriched to 60%. Civilian nuclear power typically requires enrichment levels of 3-5%. Weapons-grade uranium is enriched to roughly 90%.

The Strait of Hormuz factor

The uranium question doesn’t exist in a vacuum. It’s tangled up with the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes daily. Any comprehensive deal between the US and Iran would likely involve guarantees around the strait’s openness.

What this means for markets and investors

Prediction markets tracking the likelihood of Iran surrendering its uranium by December 31, 2026, show YES probabilities hovering between 41.5% and 46.5% following Tehran’s denial.

For traders and investors watching this situation, the key variables are straightforward. First, whether backchannel negotiations produce anything that both sides publicly acknowledge. Second, whether Iran’s Supreme Leader softens his directive on keeping uranium domestic. Third, whether the US escalates beyond rhetoric, either through sanctions, military posturing, or both.