Iran denies US ships in Strait of Hormuz; Israel halts schools near Lebanon

Iran’s military denied US ships entered the Strait of Hormuz, while Israel halted school openings near Lebanon over Hezbollah threats. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 market holds at 100% YES.

Market reaction

Iran’s insistence on retaining control over the Strait of Hormuz puts pressure on the odds for UK warships transiting by April 30. The market for UK warships through the Strait of Hormuz has reported no volume in the last 24 hours, and the news hasn’t shifted current pricing.

Why it matters

The ceasefire market is static. Every sub-market, from April 15 through December 31, is priced at 100%. Traders are either confident the ceasefire holds or see no reason to act before resolution dates. Zero volume suggests no one is willing to commit funds without a clearer signal.

At 100¢, a YES share pays $1, meaning there’s no upside. Iran’s denial and the border tensions near Lebanon test the durability of the ceasefire, but the market currently prices in no disruption. A contrarian bet only makes sense if new factors emerge that break the agreement.

What to watch

IRGC communications and any shifts in naval deployment. Changes to regional military posture or an official IRGC statement could move these markets.

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