Iran enforces Hormuz tolls despite 100% ceasefire market reading

The US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 market sits at 100% YES, even as Iran continues enforcing selective passage policies and tolls on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Market reaction

The April 30 and May 31 markets also sit at 100% YES. Daily face-value volume is over $4.2M, but actual USDC traded is $3.23M, a gap that points to potential volatility. The market is thick, meaning it takes substantial capital to move prices. No recent price shifts have occurred, which suggests traders have locked in their expectations.

Why it matters

Iran’s selective passage policy and toll enforcement on Hormuz crossings signal limited diplomatic progress despite the ceasefire market’s 100% reading. A YES share at 100¢ offers zero payout upside unless a formal ceasefire is announced. Traders betting on a quick resolution face the risk that Iran’s operational behavior contradicts any diplomatic framing.

What to watch

Signals from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar could shift expectations. Changes in rhetoric from Trump or CENTCOM, a scheduled meeting, or a shift in operational language would be the earliest indicators of movement toward a formal agreement.

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