Iran’s UN envoy indicated signs of US willingness to halt the naval blockade, potentially easing tensions. The market for Trump announcing a US-Iran ceasefire by April 30 is at 30%, down from 36% a week ago.
The possibility of the US lifting the blockade has traders reevaluating the Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by June. While the odds for a ceasefire announcement by April 30 have dropped, the envoy’s statement could signal diplomatic progress that pushes YES probabilities higher in coming days. The ceasefire breach market is a non-factor now, with April 21 locked at 100% YES.
Trade volume is at $54,670 in daily USDC for the ceasefire market, and the order book requires $841 to move odds by 5 percentage points. The largest recent move was a 4-point drop in odds, suggesting a reactive but measured market.
The envoy’s comments might mark a shift from military action to negotiations, but the credibility of this signal is uncertain. With shares at 30¢, a YES payout offers a 3.33x return. Traders need confidence in a diplomatic breakthrough before April 30 to justify that risk.
Watch for official US or Iranian statements on the blockade and any confirmation of resumed Islamabad talks. Trump’s rhetoric and Pentagon actions will drive the next move.
